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Re: Chimera of a Muslim Population Growth Rate



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Friends,
I have just gone through the original paper of P S Bhatia published in
1990,
that was one of the items on which  Dr Mohan Rao based his article. I
find
certain clear mistakes. Firstly, Dr Mohan Rao made some factual errors
in
reproducing exactly what was written by Bhatia in terms of some numbers.

Secondly I am afraid the mathematical rigourof Bhatia  needs to be
improved
as the new data evidently suggests that Bhatia's assumption  was not
correct:  evidence does not permit to assume the same rate of increase
in
decadal growth rate . Thirdly, there are additional problems in making
an
accurate comparison of the data
readily, as the data for the entire country including Assam and J & K is
not
available for all the census years, which requires adjustment.
There is some point in Mr Tripathi's argument, though I will come to my
conclusions separately in a short while.
My preliminary analysis on the subject is like this:
1. Let us go purely by the number game first and see how the numbers
changed
in
last four decades and try to project the populations assuming the same
rate
of 'rate of growth' as Bhatia did. Let me take into account the 1991
data as
cited by Dr Mohan Rao i.e. 60's, 70's and 80's decadal growth rate for H
is
23.71, 24.42 and 22.8 respectively. For the same set, rates for M is
30.85,
30.0 and 32.8. If the rate of change of decadal growth rate is taken  as
the
average of the ones between 1961-71 ,1971-81  and 1981-91, it should be
not
0.71 per cent points for H and 0.05 for M as originally assumed by
Bhatia,
but on the basis of new data, it becomes Minus 0.7 for H and 0.975 for
M. If
we adopt the simplistic calculation  similar to the one done by Bhatia,
the
figures in 2091
for decadal growth rates will be 15.8% for H and 42.55 % for M. To this
extent, I stand corrected and agree with Tripathi that the analysis of
Mohan
Rao
 is not sound, especially in the light of 1991 figures.
2. However, it does not mean that by 2091, there will be any grave
change in
population of different communities. In fact Bhatia correctly cited some

earlier
calculation made by P N Kapoor, in which Kapoor thought that proportion
of M
population in the country will be 12.9% in 2001 and that it will be
14.8% in
2031 and 29.4% in 2181. But if we see present census data available and
make
a 'polynomial trend line with order 2' using Microsoft Excel and
inputting
the census data for four decades, the proportion of M in the country
will be
about 15% in 2031 and about 16% only and not 29.4% in the year 2181.
 ( I have the graph chart available and I can share it with those of you

interested separately)
3.  But the ridiculousness of this argument will be evident when we
compare
absolute population figures of this projection. This argument assumes
that
in the year 2181, India will have a population of about 900 crores, of
whom
H will be about 720 crores and M will be about 145 crores. Needless to
say,
this argument is highly superficial, as it does not take into cognizance

many other factors like education, family income, education of the girl
child, ecological sustainability of the planet and so many societal
changes
that will be occuring in the meanwhile. History of other countries has
shown
that family planning gets accepted by all communities as time passes and
as
educational opportunities grow, incomes rise. Therefore it will only be
a
matter of 6 to 8 decades more that each community will settle down to
its
own limit and this population stabilisation has occurred everywhere.
Within
that period, in the worst possible scenario of the same rate of decadal
growth remaining, the population of Hindus certainly will not become a
minority, as I have projected the figures above for 2181.
Thanks for your time.


From: Krishna C Tripathi <krishnact@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: Chimera of a Muslim Population Growth Rate- Mathmatical


> Another mathmatical wonder from left.
>
> >From the article itself one can find this data:
>               Hindu Rate of growth       Muslim Rate
> of growth
> 1961-1971     23.71                       30.85
> 1971-1981     24.71                       30.20
> 1981-1991     22.80                       32.80
>
>
>    I can not understand how can, from this data, some
> one conclude
> "in a hundred years from 1981, ie; year 2081, Hindus
> and Muslims would record a decade growth rate of 30.71
> and 30.55 per cent, respectively. "
>
>    The above extrapolated conculsion for 1981-2081 is
> already proved wrong from the census data 1991 showing
> Muslims having 10% more groth rate than Hindus.
>





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