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Re: Chimera of a Muslim Population Growth Rate- Mathmatical



wonder
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Another mathmatical wonder from left.

>From the article itself one can find this data:
              Hindu Rate of growth       Muslim Rate
of growth
1961-1971     23.71                       30.85
1971-1981     24.71                       30.20
1981-1991     22.80                       32.80


   I can not understand how can, from this data, some
one conclude
"in a hundred years from 1981, ie; year 2081, Hindus
and Muslims would record a decade growth rate of 30.71
and 30.55 per cent, respectively. "

   The above extrapolated conculsion for 1981-2081 is
already proved wrong from the census data 1991 showing
Muslims having 10% more groth rate than Hindus.
> >From: prabhu.guptara@ubs.com
> >Reply-To: debate@indiapolicy.org
> >To: debate@indiapolicy.org
> >Subject: Chimera of a Muslim Population Growth Rate
> >Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2001 07:11:02 -0700 (PDT)
> >
>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------
> >Please help make the Manifesto better, or accept
> it, and propagate it!
>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------
> >As far as I can recollect, the following has not
> been mentioned in our
> >pages
> >and I provide it for interest.
> >
> >It is from:
>
>http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/grhf/SAsia/repro3/mohanrao.html#author
> >
> >Prabhu Guptara
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >                                The Chimera Of a
> Muslim Population
> Growth
> >Rate
> >
> >
>      Dr. Mohan Rao
> >
> >
> >That the Muslim rate of population growth is as
> much a chimera as the
> >Hindu
> >rate of economic growth does not bother
> propagandists during election
> >time.
> >This is an issue they have flogged often enough in
> the past. The issue
> >is the
> >"Muslim rate of population growth" made topical now
> by the publication
> >of
> >selected data from the 1991 Census. For what is
> being attempted is not
> >to
> >understand realities- the basis of all social
> sciences- but to project
> a
> >
> >fractured
> >view of it for purely political purposes.
> >
> >Preliminary results from the 1991 Census indicate
> that, excluding Assam
>
> >and
> >Jammu & Kashmir, the rate of growth of the Muslim
> population has been
> >32.8
> >per cent, whereas that of the Hindu population has
> been 22.8 percent.
> >However,
> >these data on growth rates by religious communities
> is not cross-
> >tabulated
> >with their determinants: income and literacy for a
> start. The exercise
> >then is
> >as meaningless as comparing the size of a lemon
> with that of an apple
> >merely
> >because both happen to be fruit.
> >
> >  The basic organised propaganda regarding a Muslim
> rate of population
> >growth
> >rests on the following four assertions, which are,
> as it were, articles
>
> >of
> >faith:
> >
> >      The law permits a Hindu male to have only one
> wife. A Muslim
> male,
> >on the
> >other hand, is allowed to have and tends to have
> more than one wife.
> >      Islam, unlike Hinduism, forbids family
> planning. Muslims,
> >therefore, do
> >not practice family planning.
> >      Muslims thus have a higher birth rate than
> Hindus.
> >      Therefore it follows that Muslims will soon
> outnumber Hindus in
> >India.
> >
> >However, what do facts brought out by official and
> non-sectarian
> >agencies have
> >to tell us?
> >
> >Nuptiality Rates
> >
> >Let us look at the data on marriages– called
> nuptiality rates. The
> >incidence of
> >polygynous marriages (i.e. one wherein a man has
> more than one wife) is
>
> >5.80% among Hindus. The percentage incidence among
> Muslims is, in fact,
>
> >slightly lower at 5.73 per cent. These figures are
> from the office of
> >the
> >Registrar
> >General and Census Commissioner of India and are to
> be found in the
> >publication
> >Polygynous Marriages in India – A Survey. What the
> data clearly
> >reveals is that there is absolutely no truth to the
> commonly propagated
>
> >assertion that bigamy or polygamy is commoner among
> Muslims. Indeed the
>
> >Census
> >Commissioner and Registrar General state "In India
> as a whole the
> >incidence of
> >polygynous marriage is highest among the persons
> returning their
> >religion as
> >tribal religion (15.25 per cent), next come the
> Buddhists (7.97 per
> >cent)
> >followed by Jains (6.72 per cent)". What the data
> clearly reveals is
> >that of
> >all these
> >religious groups, Muslims have the lowest incidence
> of polygynous
> >marriages.
> >
> >What is equally important to bear in mind is that a
> high incidence of
> >polygynous marriages does not serve to increase
> fertility – as is
> >commonly
> >propagated.
> >Given the fact that the sex ratio (i.e. the number
> of females per
> >thousand
> >males which is considered a reflection of women's
> status in society) in
>
> >India
> >is highly
> >unfavorable to females amongst both Hindus and
> Muslims, more than one
> >female
> >marrying one male is not likely to increase
> fertility; on the contrary
> >it is
> >likely
> >to have a fertility depressant effect in both these
> communities.
> >
> >Religious Sanction of Family Planning
> >
> >Similarly, there is no truth to the assertion that
> Islam forbids
> >acceptance of
> >family planning. In a study entitled "Is Islam
> Against Family
> >Planning?", Khan
> >points out that the Koran does not forbid family
> planning. What the
> >Koran does
> >prohibit are abortions and sterilisations but even
> these are permitted
> >on
>
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