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Some more reasons against signing CTBT

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Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2000 14:32:18 -0600

Some more reasons not to sign CTBT

-----Original Message-----
From: apatnaik [mailto:apatnaik@swbell.net]
Sent: Saturday, January 08, 2000 2:30 PM
To: 'S Gopal'
Subject: RE: Question to your article on SAAG on Indian

Dear Mr. Gopal,

Thanks for your reply, I am against India signing CTBT for many reasons, one
of which is the future of Nuclear weapons is very much a reality and more so
is its continued development towards controlled mini-nukes.
This is the direction being taken by the US and Russia, It is a very
dangerous for mindsets to stop, India towards developing this capability
that may require testing.

Here is a report I came across that may have covered the mini-nukes being a
weapon of choose by terrorists ..and this is not fiction..


Special to WORLD TRIBUNE.COM - Monday, August 9, 1999


WASHINGTON -- Saudi fugitive Osama Bin Laden is believed to have up to 20
nuclear bombs and is seeking to launch a massive terrorist strike against
the United States, a congressional investigator and author says.

Yosef Bodansky, a researcher of the House Task Force for Counterterrorism
and author of a new book on Bin Laden, told a news conference on Friday that
Bin Laden has been seeking to follow up on his bombings of two U.S.
embassies in east Africa one year ago. Echoing U.S. officials, Bodansky said
Bin Laden was thwarted in plans to blow up the U.S. embassy and two
consulates in India in last December and January.

Bin Laden has biological, chemical and nuclear weapons, Bodansky said. The
nuclear weapons include suitcase bombs acquired through Chechniyan rebels
and received technical help from Iraq.

"The Russians believe that he has a handful [of nuclear weapons], the Saudi
intelligence services are very conservative, perhaps they are friendly to
the United States, believe that he has in the neighborhood of 20," Bodansky
said. "As far as the acquisition and obtaining, there's the multiple sources
of that, dealing with the actual purchase of suitcase bombs. His collection
of individuals knowledgeable in activating the bombs and he is looking for
and recruiting former Soviet special forces in learning how to operate the
bombs behind enemy lines."

"As far as decision-making in Washington is concerned, we should assume that
he has them," he added. "Most of them have been transferred through

"Let me stress here: We don't have any indication that they are going to use
it tomorrow or any other day," added Bodansky, whose analyses are considered
controversial in Washington. "But they have the capability, they have the
legitimate authorization, they have the logic for using it. So, one does not
go into the tremendous amount of expenditures, effort, investment in human
beings, in human resources, to have something that will be just kept
somewhere in storage for a rainy day."

Bodansky said Bin Laden has strong ties with Islamic fundamentalists
throughout the Middle East, the Balkans, Britain in the Untied States. He
refused to name any specific organization in the United States.

"There's a distinct minority within the Moslem community in the United
States that is very sympathetic to his cause, to his analysis and
interpretation of the relationship between the hub of Islam and the
penetration of Westernization, Western culture and the like," he said. "And
a minority among this minority are known to have crossed the threshold of
willingness to commit terrorist acts or commit violence. Many have been
trained in Afghanistan, Bosnia and elsewhere throughout the Moslem world, so
that they are capable. They have the skills and capabilities to carry out an
operation as required."

Bodansky said Bin Laden remains in Afghanistan. He said the Saudi is located
in Islam Darva, about 80 kilometers northwest of Kandahar. When he wants to
communicate with the outside world, he travels to Jalalabad.

-----Original Message-----
From: S Gopal [mailto:gopal@blr.vsnl.net.in]
Sent: Thursday, January 06, 2000 11:01 AM
To: apatnaik@swbell.net
Subject: Re: Question to your article on SAAG on Indian

Dear Mr. Patnaik
                  Thanks for your perceptive comments on my article on
Nuclear Doctrine on the SAAG website. Your comments were forwarded by Shri
Raman and I am sorry for the delay in responding . I was preoccupied with
some personal matters during the whole of December.Now to your comments

 Yes , Without economic strength  it is not possible to stand up to any
bullying . bullying as you could see is through economic weapons and not
through military and much less nuclear weapons.all the nuclear weapons they
had did not help the former soviet union to stay together and worse face
the relentless onslaught of the American capitalism. India would therefore
do well to concentrate on building up its economic strength and not talk of
triads etc.
I agree with you that we must retain the min deterrence  but that could be
confined to handle Pakistan now . There should be a paralled track in
building economic strength along with military and nuclear strength.Please
understand that nuclear wars are unwinnable by any one and there is no
victor left in the end. But faced with the irrational intrasigence of
Pakistan which will not rule out the first nuclear attack we need to
prepare ourselves for deterring pakistan from doing it.The rest of the
world including China is rational and there is no need to unnecessarily
prepare in a big way to deter them.

 yes there is no hurry to sign the CTBT. However only our scientists can
answer the question . If they are confident that the tests done so far are
sufficient then why not sign it but not ratify it till others including the
U.S. do ?
There is a provision in the treaty to opt out in supreme national interests.

with regards. gopal

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