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*To*: india_policy@cinenet.net*Subject*: Please calculate and let me know*From*: Sanjeev Sabhlok <sabhlok@almaak.usc.edu>*Date*: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 13:02:39 -0700 (PDT)*Sender*: owner-india_policy@cinenet.net

PRE-DEBATE ========== I know that there a bunch of economists on this list; and a horde of people who understand compounding and simple maths. I have a question whose answer we need to know: Let us assume that USA PER CAPITA income grows at 1.5%, 2%, 2.5% and 3% for the next 500 years (i.e., we have 4 different scenarios). Given that India's per capita today is 20 times lesser than USA (in PPP terms), and we want India to catch up with USA in 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 years, what are the growth rates in per capita we need to target in order to reach this cross-over point. Start the calculations from 2000 AD. Assume that India's population stabilizes at 1.8 billion in 2050 [this is a bad assumption, given the strong demo-economic interactions, but let us begin with this]. I need a table in the following format: TABLE OF GROWTH RATES NEEDED TO CROSS-OVER THE USA Assumed Years needed to cross over USA the USA and become NUMBER ONE growth rate 50 100 150 200 250 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 We have seen that growth rates of 8-9% in per capita per year are easily achievable (as China has done in the past 15 years), and give two facts: a) We are smarter than any Korean or Chinese or anyone else b) We have recorded all the lessons we learnt from the mistakes of these Asian countries, We can do 10-12% per year for huge periods of time. Question is: what is it going to take to beat the USA? SS

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